Last week I fell way back to earth by going 0-5 in a way that only a horrible gambler on a unholy roll could do. I am back to throwing my hands in they air and saying fuck it. Well here goes, fuck it!
Green Bay(-3.5) over Detroit:
Push the over here because this is going to be a shootout. Green Bay is going to win handily though. What I would like to quickly rant about is Ndamukong Suh. I hear every radio show in Detroit bitching about his play so I would like to explain to you why he is the best defensive player on his team by far and why you’re rarely going to have you mind blown by what he does. Defensive tackles depending on scheme do a few things. None of those things are exciting, none of those things show up on a stat sheet and none of those things people who have never played the game would understand. What Suh does on pretty much every play is eat a double team block. If your defensive tackle eats a double team he has already done his job. Why does eating a double team block matter? First, during the run Suh’s job is freeing up the linebacker(s) to flow to the ball. His job is not to get into the backfield, and it’s not to chase the play down from the backside. His job is to occupy two people and two gaps between the offensive linemen. That is it. On the pass, Suh’s job is to occupy two offensive linemen so that his defensive ends can get a one on one match up. When a defensive tackle gets a sack it’s not because he shot through a gap and speed rushed the QB. It’s because his coverage held long enough for him to work through the double team and get to the QB. Lions fan, if you want to bitch about something bitch about how you are taking defensive backs off the street, but about your coach being a gutless dickhead, bitch about your quarterback who can’t make a play before the 4th quarter.
Cleveland (+8) over Dallas
Why would Vegas give Dallas that kind of line? Because they went out last week and blew out a horrible Eagles team. Cleveland has been really solid this year. Their defence is really good and their offense is coming along. I don’t think they win this outright but I think they will make it close.
San Diego (+8) over Denver
Pretty much the same as above. Denver is flawed just enough they I don’t see this being a more than a TD win here.
Tampa Bay (-2) over Carolina
I doubted Tampa last week. I will not doubt this this week. Josh Freeman is back and Carolina is really bad. Tampa’s defence also has looked like the days of John Lynch and Rhonde Barber*. Also don’t think rumours about a move to LA isn’t in the minds of the organization in Carolina.
St. Louis (-3.5) over New York Jets
I take delight in the fall of the jets, and to make it sweeter, betting against them is great. Rex Ryan’s control of the locker room and his mishandling of the Tebow/Sanchez situation is amazing. Sanchez is really really bad, how can’t you just say I am going to play the guy who won games last year? Had he done it two weeks ago they might be fighting for a wildcard spot. But we will never know. The best part is the gutless punks who are talking crap about Tebow in the press. Your team is 3-6 and you’re bashing your backup? Only a dickhead the likes on Antonio Cromartie could conjure this up.
*Yes I know Rhonde “The Good Twin” Barber is still there.